The Locks are in. Unlike this beer we’re about to drink, I’m hot baby…not so much last week. 3-3 week, but I’ve been well above 50% over the last 3 weeks. 12-6 over the last 3, which has helped keep my overall record nice and steady.
Season long record: 46-42-4 (52% ATS)
Not exactly quitting the day job yet with those number, but we’re not far off.
Disclaimer: Good/bad/indifferent…All of the lines detailed here were locked in @ noon on 12/15/23 via the Hard Rock Bet app
Broncos +4.5 @ Lions- Sometimes you play the team, sometimes you bet against a team, and sometimes you simply bet a number. That last one is what I’m doing here. Detroit has been struggling as of late, so fading them becomes easier, that’s typically when you want to buy back on good team, I’m just not sure this is going to be a blow out situation. The Broncos are so well coached, they play at a snails pace, they can run it with Javonte Williams – it feels like a game that’s going to be won in the final minutes, and I want the team catching over a field goal in that situation. Last 7 weeks for the Broncos, they’ve either won or lost by 5 or less. Meanwhile, the Lions have given up 83 points over the past 2 weeks to sub par offenses. Give me the Broncos +4.5, lock it up!
Steelers +2 @ Colts- I went heavy into ‘fade Gardner Minshew’ mode last week and I’m going back to the well here. Feels like the bottom is falling out for this Colts team, their record does not indicate how bad they are. Do I feel warm and cozy betting on Mitch Trubisky? No, of course not. But we don’t bet to feel warm and cozy…we bet to win. TJ Watt is active and healthy for this one, I expect him to feast on Minshew all afternoon. Also, if it makes you feel better about the pick, Tomlin is 46-22-2 as an underdog in his career, and Minshew in games with a spread of 4 or less – 6-14 straight up. This is a Steelers play all day. Pittsburgh +2, lock it up!
Derrick Henry anytime TD +100- Probably don’t need much analysis here. Derrick Henry is a beast, the Titans are at home, and he’s cooking right now. Last 3 weeks, 2 touchdowns a piece in each, we just need 1 here to cash the bet. Texans rank 18th in the league at stopping the run, not like he’s facing a juggernaut here. Feels like a layup. Take the freebie. Lock it up.
Bills -2 vs Cowboys- The Bills have really turned it on as of late, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Since they fired Ken Dorsey and Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, the Bills have scored an average of 28ppg. They outgained 2 of those 3 opponents, and Josh Allen is completely locked in. 9 touchdowns over the past 3 weeks, 325 yards on average, with just 1 turnover in each game. But this is as much about fading Dallas as a public darling as anything else. They just beat the crap out of a rival on prime-time, and now everyone is singing their praises. This is when you hop off the Cowboys. Also, in the last 20 years, teams with a win percentage @ 75 or higher, as an underdog in December…37% against the spread. Bills are the right side here, lock it up!
Bucs +3.5 @ Packers- Kind of a Spider-Man Meme game, what’s really the difference between these 2 teams? 2 game managing QB’s sitting at 6-7, with a banged up defense. Part of what leads me in the direction of the Bucs, but these 2 things push me over the top. The Bucs are quietly the #2 team in the league this year ATS when away from home. Only the Minnesota Vikings have a better away record against the spread than the Bucs, who sit @ 6-1. Also, the Bucs have found something with Rachaad White, they ran for a season-best 148 last week, and GB is swiss cheese against the run this year. Allowing at least 140 on the ground per game in 5 straight. Give me the Bucs to ground and pound their way to a cover, +3.5, lock it up!
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