A day early but the Locks have arrived! And don’t look now, but your boy is back on track. 9-3 against the spread over the past 2 weeks. Coming off a 5-1 conference title/NFL weekend, now, we don’t have the variety to comb through today with there being just 1 game in college football – but I will manage.
Season long record: 43-39-4 (52% ATS)
Disclaimer: Good/bad/indifferent…All of the lines detailed here were locked in @ noon on 12/1/23 via the Hard Rock Bet app
Browns -3.5 vs Jaguars- First off, I don’t think Trev is gonna play in this game. I don’t think he should play in this game. This one is going to be nasty. Frigid temps, 40% chance of rain, 20mph winds. Scoring is going to be tough and it usually is when you head into Cleveland. This year, the Browns have allowing 10ppg at home and over 30 on the road. It makes no sense, but I’m going to trust the trend, especially in this weather, and especially against CJ Beathard. I don’t see how the Jags score with any consistency. Browns win and cover -3.5. Lock it up!
**Also, taking the under in this game…side lock! Under 30.5! (games with 10+ MPH of wind are 57% to the under over the last 20 years)
Chiefs -1.5 vs Bills- Just around the time we all start doubting Patrick Mahomes, is usually the time we should start betting Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has had 5 games in his career where he has thrown at least 1 INT and passed for 225 or fewer…the next game, he’s 5-0 against the spread, covering by 2 touchdowns per game. The greats simply don’t handle losing well and they tend to bounce back even stronger when they get to play in the confines of their own building. What, all the sudden we trust Buffalo because they lost to the Eagles? No thanks. I’ll pass. Give me Mahomes and the Chiefs -1.5. Lock it up!
Ravens -1.5 (1st quarter) vs Rams- I’ll probably end up on the Ravens full game @ -7.5, but when I saw this it jumped out at me. The Ravens coming off a bye, Lamar well rested, John Harbaugh one of the best schemers in the league…and they’re in Baltimore. They should be able to establish dominance early on in this one, especially with the Rams traveling cross country, early start for them. But the #’s that back this up, my God, the Ravens have a first quarter lead 90% of the time this season. I expect them to get a lead early in this one, Ravens 1st quarter -1.5, lock it up!
Bengals +1.5 vs Colts- Here’s a trivia question for ya, who is the biggest fraud currently going in the NFL? If you said the Colts, you would be correct. 4 wins in a row, this team is miraculously 7-5 and in a playoff race. Its not real. They’ve won 4 straight, all in tight games against really bad teams. Panthers, Patriots, Bucs, and Titans in OT. 4 straight wins is not who they are. Meanwhile, I think the Bengals may have found a little something on Monday night. Jake Browning isn’t Joe Burrow but he might be a decent back up in this league and I think people tend to be slow to come around to this stuff. Browning, Minshew, Minshew, Browning…what’s the difference? Give me the home dog with the better roster. Bengals +1.5. Lock it up!
**2nd Bonus: Tyreek Hill over 104.5 receiving yards on Monday Night Football. He’s going to TORCH this Titans defense in prime-time.
Photo: Jason Miller / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images