It must be a Friday afternoon in the City Beautiful because I am about to deliver some Stone-Cold Locks. And just like I’ve been promising to you and myself for the past week, the bounce back has come! Rocky start last week, 0-2 out of the gate in college football…but finished strong, 4-0 with my NFL picks. That’s a 4-2 week and it brings me to a season record of 38-38-4, a clean and manageable 50%. Still not where I want to be, but we’ve got weeks and weeks to go in the football season. Let’s get some winners!
Disclaimer: All of the lines detailed here were locked in @ noon on 12/1/23 via the Hard Rock Bet app
Oregon -9.5 vs Washington- This line on the surface makes absolutely no sense. The Huskies are the higher ranked team, they’ve already beaten Oregon. Its foolishness! But those are the lines I gravitate towards, because the books are trying to tell you something. Without looking into anything, what they’re telling you is, Washington ain’t that good. The Huskies just haven’t really been that good in weeks and there are rumors out there that Michael Penix isn’t rocking at 100% either. His last 2 games, 162 yards and just over 200…both with a completion rate under 55%. Something’s not right there. Meanwhile, Oregon has been blowing teams out every week since they lost to Washington. Revenge is on the mind, I’ll take the better team, the better defense, the healthier QB. Ducks -9.5, lock it up!
Bama +5.5 vs Georgia- Speaking of revenge. Bama wasn’t even in the SEC Title game last year, so you know once Saban gets there, he’s a menace to deal with. Bama has the advantage in the rivalry too, they’ve won 8 of the last 9. And I’m sorry, I’m just not overly impressed with Georgia this year. They’ve had some blowout wins, but its nothing like last year, and they didn’t have that one bench mark game. Bama’s had a few of ‘em, they’re battle tested, and I think the scare against Auburn from last week kicks this team into high gear. I view this as a coin flip game, so I’ll take the team catching 5.5. Bama covers, lock it up!
Dolphins team total over 29.5 points vs Commanders- I want no part of this spread, if anything, I’d take the Commanders plus the points, but it’s the holidays and I don’t feel like betting against my Dolphins. Plus, this is the sort of matchup they usually exploit. The Phins excel in games against “lesser competition”, but I’m not sure I consider Washington’s offense the problem here, and I don’t trust Miami’s defense yet. So I’m going to attack the part of this game I do trust…Miami’s offense vs Washington’s defense is a complete mismatch. Since trading away their key pieces defensively, they’re allowing more total yards of offense than anyone in the NFL. They’re best DB Emmanuel Forbes looks to be out again, I think the Phins will score at will in this game. Give me the Phins to score OVER 29.5 points in this game. Lock it up!
49ers -3.5 @ Eagles- This one is too good to pass up first of all. But the logic is the same as the Oregon game. Eagles plus the points is too easy here, its such a trap, so many people are going to fall for it. SF is the better team right now, they’re the healthier team, and they’ve had this one circled on the calendar since they got bounced with a 3rd string QB in the conference title game. The Eagles have just had a gauntlet to deal with and I don’t think they can survive another. Chiefs epic clash 2 weeks ago, short week, beat the Bills in OT…this is just asking a lot of a team. Meanwhile, the 49ers had 10 days to prepare. I think this game could turn into a blow out. 49ers -3.5, lock it up! (I would advise buying this down to 2.5 for safety)
Cardinals +5.5 @ Steelers- Very cute, the Steelers put up 400 yards of offense for the first time this year, right after they fire their OC. Statement sort of moment for the team, but I’m going to choose to believe the other 10 games they’ve played this year where their offense is among the worst in football. And I can hear you now, but Brandon they’re 7-4…right. And they got there playing some really bad QB’s and doing it in one score games. This is simple, I just ask myself, how many points do the Cardinals need to score to cover a 5.5 point spread? The answer I came up with was 2. Because we know the Steelers aren’t getting to 20. Cards +5.5 against the overrated Steelers, lock it up!
*For what its worth, I really like the Packers plus the points on Sunday Night Football but I hate going against Mahomes and I really prefer the # at 6.5, right now its @ 5.5.
Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images